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The Representation Paradox: Why Labor Market Outsiders Get Attention but Not Action
Under Review
Abstract
Conventional theories of labor market outsider representation emphasize partisan ideology as the primary determinant of legislative attention to precarious workers’ interests. We challenge this view by demonstrating that governing status, rather than ideology, is a decisive factor shaping outsider representation in majoritarian electoral systems where high electoral thresholds prevent labor market outsiders from supporting credible alternative parties. To test this theory, we exploit South Korea’s 2017 post-impeachment presidential election, which created an exogenous shift in governing status during a congressional session. Using a cross-over difference-in-differences (DID) method, we find that while opposition parties actively propose pro-outsider legislation, their lack of governing power renders these efforts largely symbolic. Conversely, governing parties possess the institutional capacity to implement meaningful reforms but face systematic incentives to avoid pro-outsider policies. This creates a representational paradox where newly emerging precarious groups receive significant legislative attention but limited policy implementation.
When Foreign Investment Counters the Populist Backlash: County-level Evidence from US Presidential Elections
Received Revise and Resubmit
Abstract
While research shows globalization-induced job losses fuel anti-establishment voting in the US, this overlooks that America is also the world’s largest foreign direct investment (FDI) recipient, creating millions of local jobs. We argue that FDI-receiving communities perceive impacts of globalization differently because they experience wage growth, positive contact with skilled migrants, and global value chain integration, fostering pro-globalization sentiment. Using county-level data from 2008–2020, we find counties with substantial FDI job growth showed smaller vote swings toward Trump in 2016. This ef- fect was strongest in counties with simultaneous job losses, particularly among white, male, or rural populations—demographics that typically exhibit the strongest anti- establishment sentiment and are most susceptible to trade-displacement grievances. These findings reveal a counter-narrative: where global integration delivers tangible prosperity, it builds political resilience against populist backlash.
Partisan Contestation of International Organization Legitimacy: Evidence from the IAEA in South Korea’s Fukushima Debate
Under Review
Abstract
This study investigates how international organizations (IOs) can maintain legitimacy and influence when domestic politics become polarized around their involvement. Using the International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) engagement with South Korea’s controversy over Japan’s Fukushima wastewater release as a case study, we examine both elite discourse and public opinion formation around IO legitimacy. Through analysis of political party statements, we identify three key characteristics—expertise, neutrality, and transparency—that parties strategically invoke to either legitimize or challenge IO involvement in domestic affairs. We then test how these characteristics affect public attitudes toward IO engagement more broadly through a survey experiment with 3,106 South Korean citizens. While overall effects on IO acceptance are modest, we find that emphasizing technical expertise significantly increases support for IO involvement among initially skeptical subgroups, particularly liberals and moderates. Notably, groups with lower baseline trust in IO involvement—including college-educated respondents—proved most responsive to expertise-based appeals. These findings suggest that while IO involvement in polarized domestic debates faces inherent limitations, technical competence can serve as a crucial legitimizing resource, particularly among educated and initially skeptical audiences who are capable of processing expertise-based arguments.
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